Market Timing

Timing the market is an ever on-going project both here at the PrudentTrader and elsewhere on Wall Street.  Is it time to buy? Is it time to Sell?

The following charts are a means of prodding you that the market is in a bullish and/or bearish phase.  You can read all the blogs and websites, from those that are always bullish or always bearish.  Will that help you?  Or you can read all the fundamental blogs and websites with, I have to admit, outstanding arguments.  If you read one that is bullish and another that is bearish and both have what appear to be great arguments, does that help or hinder you?

Our systems approach will from time to time be whipsawed, it’s just the nature of the beast.  If however you diversify across asset classes, even accumulate and distribute in pieces you will end up beating the market over time.  In addition to this market timing section also browse our ETF Signals and diversify across the colors (asset classes) in perhaps international and domestic equities, commodities, sectors, currencies, and real estate.  Both an entry and an exit signal is provided.


An overview of our U.S. Index timing appears on our Watch List Spreadsheet below:

Finding Bull Markets (ETF or asset class Market Laboratory)

The conservative approach for many is to diversify their investable dollars across asset classes on the theory that no one knows what tomorrow holds. In my 40+ years around the markets as well as investors and investor attitudes I can safely say that despite the lip service given by the average individual trader, when push comes to shove, the will not sell short.  Therefore they have at times but two choices; move to cash in a down market OR look to the asset class or classes that are in bull markets and concentrate your trading their.

In this vain a comprehensive analysis has been put together, utilizing ETFs in various asset classes, which should help you discover just where those bull markets are and which ones may be emerging.

It’s not the knowing that’s hard – It’s the doing!


The following charts reflect Victor Sperandeo’s S.P.D.T.I. formula (red line). For one of the indexes to turn bullish price must close the month above the red line. A Close below is bearish. The red arrows reflect the last exit or short point. These charts will be updated at the beginning of each month. Charts are updated on Friday evenings and at the end of the month.

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These charts reflect the Donchain Channel.  Breakout’s occur on a violation of the Green Line (Buy), Red Line (Sell). Many utilize a close instead of an intra-day break for the signal.

A filter has been added as per Turtles Trading Models. For a buy signal to be valid MACD must be above zero. Compare the back tests trading against the major indexes [Spreadsheet Link] see if you prefer one or the other.

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