Monthly Strategy Letter: October 2022

Site Last Update  Friday September 30  Market Close!

After 20 years publishing “PrudentTrader”, the owner, Bill Zimmer (at age 77) has decided to semi-retire. My wife and I would like to travel before we are too old to enjoy it and the travel at some times extensive, will preclude my ability to update on a daily basis at times.

There are many investing strategies that work over long periods of time. The key is sticking with the one you choose and not constantly changing on the fly like the hapless batter constantly changing stances.

Most investors will invariably abandon their chosen blueprint after a period of underperformance. They will switch strategies and change their methods before it has a chance to bear fruit. This leads to the unfortunate behavior gap of investor returns, compared to the basic market indices.

Investment strategies come into and out of vogue. Well if that strategy is working so well, maybe I should switch: As of this writing, Buy and Hold seems to now be in vogue, once again. Will that change with the next bear market, whenever and wherever that may be?

Bill Zimmer, owner of Prudent Trader, had is first investment in 1967 almost a half century ago. He became a registered representative for the then Shearson Hammill and Company in 1972 over 40 years ago.  During that time he has learned a thing or two. In order to succeed you need to…

  • Have a Life Plan, and from there employ an
  • Investment plan – The why, the contributions (initial and on going) and the how or method of decision making.
  • Implement that plan.

The Prudent Trader has a few different researched and back tested plans that may appeal to you, these plans are discussed and written about in these E-books. I am well aware of the caveat that past performance is not indicative of future results (that is also true of buy and hold) but what are your alternatives?

My methods deal primarily with relative strength,   Relative strength is extremely robust  and that can be shown with Monte Carlo testing.  

When one is attempting to analyze a method of investing, beyond back testing comes real time performance. No method I know of is up every day, week, or even year. We all must learn to accept the down times with the up times. These pages will show the current positions in our ETF asset allocation program by asset class as well as the performance both historically and year to date (in real time). There is also a tab dedicated to the Fidelity Rotational program both year to date and historical.