Overseas markets are mostly higher: Nikkei 225 +0.52%, Hang Seng 31 +2.18%, Shanghai Composite +0.09%, DAX -0.53%, and the FTSE 100  +0.28%.

Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi on Tuesday said the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, agreed at their meeting in Oran, Algeria, to cut oil output by a record 2 million barrels a day,

As of this writing the futures are lower: Dow -95, S&P -8.8, Naz -15, Oi -$0.23, and Gold $11.50.

There are numerous ways to measure accumulation.  Joe Granville probably started it all with On Balance Volume or OBV for short.  OBV computes a running total of volume added when the stock closes higher from yesterdays close and subtracts the volume on a lower close.  Since then others have attempted to improve on Joe’s original work.

Few algorithms utilized to calculate accumulation utilize the opening price.  The PrudentTrader algorithm does.  The reason is quite simple.  If a stock or market gaps, let’s say up, due to news or overnight activity but then closes under that opening price (even though higher from yesterdays close) who really won the battle of the day?  In this instance I submit the bears.  The opening price is all too often overlooked.

If we take the accumulation and apply a moving average (55) then say if the accumulation figure is above the moving average and the moving averages rate of change is positive we’ll call that accumulation. If the opposite is true we’ll call it distribution.  Looking at the S&P 500 stocks as of last evenings close 67 were showing accumulation.  223 were showing distribution and the remaining had no accumulation/distribution pattern.  An added column below shows the number of trading days the accumulation definition has been in affect.

This mornings economic data: CPI m/m -1.7% vs. expectations of: -1.3%,  ex food & energy 0.0% m/m vs. expectation of: +0.1%. Housing starts .625 million unit rate vs, a consensus of: 0.740 million-unit rate.

Of course at 2:15 PM we receive the FOMC announcement: Consensus Forecast for 12/16/08 policy vote on fed funds target: down 50 basis points to 0.50%. Range of expectations: down 75 basis points to 0.25% to down 50 basis points to 0.50%.

Overseas markets are mostly higher this morning: Nikkei 225 -1.12%, Hang Seng +0.55%, Shanghai Composite +0.54%, DAX +1.98%, and the FTSE 100 +0.92%.

As of this writing the futures say: Dow +94, S&P +13, Naz +20, Oil +$0.89, and Gold -$0.10.