ETF & Stock Selection
NOT A MEMBER YET? CHOOSE YOUR PROGRAM AND DONATE [HERE]
Purpose and Objective
My personal background includes a period of a number of years as a money manager. The methodology used to manage the money was a trading swing system, which I as manager would override from time to time based on what I believed to be conflicting information. During my tenure as manager the average annual return received by investors was in excess of 40% without a losing year. Read the performance as something of which I am particularly proud, not as something that I am attempting to duplicate. Past performance is not a guarantee of future success.
In all honesty it was not the system in and of itself that accomplished the returns. The performance was achieved through diversification amongst markets that do not necessarily trade together and well laid out money and risk management plan. The purpose of this new section is to bring this thinking and similar systems to the general public for their individual use, and for a very reasonable, even nominal donation. On a personal note; I have no interest in reinstating my advisors license and managing individuals’ funds.
The Market Timing and Selection Systems
In today’s computer age many systems are designed and then optimized for the best possible look back. This is also known as curve fitting. With the power of the computer we can continue to alter variables in order to produce utterly fantastic results. I can do it, and so can you. The results are somewhat of a fallacy. We can curve fit the past but we cannot curve fit the future. There are many systems being sold and hyped on the internet and probably TV as well that have been curve fitted for maximum performance. A good clue is the price, the higher the price in all probability your looking at curve fitting. Buyer beware!
The system designs are based on well known theories that have been around for many years. No optimization as been performed, although in one instance a filter has been added in order to reduce whipsaw conditions. With the added filter there are three systems of market timing and selection to choose from. You will need to go over the back test results, the turnover, the risk involved, and the drawdown that has taken place historically and then choose which to follow, which is most suitable to your style of trading/investing, your risk tolerances, and your time frame as well. We are all different!
Since I was also a stockbroker for about 15 years and during the bear market of the 70’s as well, I am well aware that the public at large will not sell short. The reasons for this are totally irrelevant and I do not wish to convince someone to sell short if it runs against their grain. The systems therefore were designed from a long only perspective, either your in the market or your out of the market. If one is aggressive and wishes to use the out of the market as a sell short signal, well that is certainly your choice.
Members are well aware of the systems being utilized, the calculations involved as well as the inherent risks. If you decide to become a member you will become more informed. I am however making the back test results open to the public without divulging the exact methodologies involved; you’ll see method 1, method 2, and method 3. At least one or perhaps a combination should be suitable to most, other than the very short term trader.
To access the Microsoft Excel spread sheet [Click Here!] this spreadsheet is open to All!
Stock and ETF Selection
ETF’s are divided into categories to aid in your diversification efforts. Ideally you will have monies invested in each category when signals are generated. By investing across categories and not within categories means that some will probably be going your way while others may not. This cushions any negative period and there will be negative periods no matter how one operates. The ETF signals are updated nightly where appropriate.
Stock selection takes a bit of a different tone. Each week a watch list is put together based on Charlie Kirkpatrick’s book “Beat the Market: Investby Knowing What Stocks to Buy and What Stocks to Sell”
The Book cover is a link to Amazon.com and this book. Then of course you can do this by yourself; simply buy the book and put the watch lists together utilizing various sources. In any case the watch lists are put together along with all fundamental data for each and signals to buy or sell by the above mentioned methodologies.
Portfolios are structured for your perusal using my money management concepts and diversification across sectors along with two back tested methods of entry and exit. Once you understand and become accustomed to the money and risk management concepts and the methodologies used you will be able to put together affective portfolios at the proper time to maximize your gains. You will also be able to affectively move to the sidelines when times warrant.
Currently there are two portfolios being tested one without overall market timing and one with market timing. Stops basis these methodologies are also posted on a nightly basis.
If you’re looking for an easy way to follow the markets and buy the right stocks at the right time this new section is for you!