February 12 – Summation on Spiders

Asset Class Overview:

U.S. stocks continued to be whipped around by news from Europe, where Greece is seeking to ease conditions on its bailout program. The current bailout is due to expire at the end of the month. This market is being driven by headlines and every comment that comes out of an ECB official’s mouth.

European stocks fell, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index down 0.2% and France’s CAC 40 down 0.3%. A decline in oil prices weighed on energy shares. Crude-oil futures fell 2% to $49.03 a barrel after data showed U.S. crude supplies rose more than expected to a record high.

It appears investors are selling some of the stocks that have performed well over the last year, such as health-care and utilities, and buying some beaten-down stocks, including those in the energy sector.

In other markets, gold futures lost 0.9% to $1220.90 a barrel. The yield on the 10-year note fell to 1.984% from 1.991% on Tuesday. Yields fall as prices rise.

S&P One Day:

ScreenHunter_01 Feb. 11 16.06

3 Months:

SP_3MThat is what is known in the trades as a directionless market. One day it will break out to the upside or breakdown to the downside. I have my suspicions but that is all they are.

Overview

Sector Watch:

In this uneventful day in the markets, well the major averages at any rate, we have five of our 14 sectors on the downside, one unchanged, the remainder higher. On a rolling week basis only one (Utilities) fell. Utilities are also lower on a rolling month and year to date basis.

SpdrDaily

Our larger list of 79 sector/industry ETFs showed 33 higher, 3 unchanged, the remainder finished on the downside. Top 10 performers:

Screen Shot 2015-02-11 at 6.53.53 PM

Bottom 10:

Screen Shot 2015-02-11 at 6.56.19 PMNotice not only what happened today but where these ETFs are on a rolling week and a rolling month basis. Also take note of the over and under weight rankings. Things will pop out at you over time.

Summation on Spiders

I have been accused of being in search of the “Holy Grail“. That assessment is both right and wrong at the same time. Some have looked at all this site offers and then jump to the Holy Grail search. All that is offered is offered because we have a diverse group of members; short term traders, long term investors and everything in between. What I do do that sometimes can give that holy grail search meaning is to present observations. An observation is exactly that, an observation. OK now we have that out of the way let me move on to an observation.

I am sure you have noticed a second set of Spider and Index charts recently appear and replace the old. The new set of charts contains the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index (If you are not familiar with or need a refresher, click on Link for explanation of those indicators directly from the source)

Let take a look at one that has been in the news lately – Energy Stocks (XLE) I have circled area’s where the summation index (Calculated on XLE) crossed the 5 day moving average of the summation index.

XLE_M

If I take the crosses then look at the opening price the next day for a fill:

Bot Sold
79.13 85.91 6.78
79.13 79.27 0.14
75.87 79.27 3.4
75.87 79.86 2/10 Close 3.99

That’s not too bad over a roughly 6 week time frame.

I have not back tested this but I will when I get a chance. Other thoughts come to mind here but I will bring those up in the future.

Economic Reports and Earnings:



Screen Shot 2014-11-20 at 7.16.15 PM