Adjusting and Tweaking

Most people in this business look for the easy way out. They want someone to tell them what to do and they want that someone to never be wrong. At least rarely wrong. They just do not wish to do any work or they fear making a decision alone and being wrong. Misery loves company.

Once one can admit there will be mistakes, especially in investing, then you begin the road to profitability. Regardless of your methodologies and record you need to experiment and tweak. Nothing lasts forever, and that includes your profitable system.

The cycles experiment that I have been playing with I believe shows a good deal of potential. In 2014 I changed my parameters on the Chandelier (which we use to enter and exit). It has accomplished two things, first the trading has been reduced, a good thing, and second a number of bad trades have been avoided.

The performance this year is about equal to the markets performance, maybe a little better, maybe not. Of course when you look at the buys and sells remember that we get the signal on the close and count tomorrow’s opening price as our fill. That is done merely for tracking purposes, I’m sure you could do better.

2013 trading showed a good deal of streaking. Many consecutive wins and many consecutive losses. We have not had that streaking in 2014. This is not for everyone, it might be for you though : 😎

CyclesThis time we are not really streaking but steady as she goes. I have also noticed they leveraged ETFs have responded very well when the cycles pointed to a buy/sell and the chandelier was broken.

The watch list for pending cycle turns are put up on Fridays. Tuesday’s Investor scorecard also carries the cycles if you’d like to apply your own buy sell criteria and see how it works out.

Talking Points and Will Apple Mobile Payments Service Be Secure?: 

Finally, academics discover technical analysis! (Cam Hui)
Escape Fandango​ (Paul A. McCulley)
Moving beyond volatility: four sources of risk.  (Rekenthaler Report)
Government Debt Isn’t the Problem—Private Debt Is (Atlantic)
Boom in Energy Spurs Industry in the Rust Belt (NY Times)
Commercial Traders No Longer Tailwind For Higher Stock Prices (GaveCal)
Dry, Scratchy Eyes? Staring at Screens Is Driving This Trend (NPR)
Currencies Break, Gold Does Not (Alhambra)
There May Be no Such Thing as a Free Lunch — Not Even at Google or Facebook (WonkBlog)
Are Subprime Mortgages Coming Back? (NY Times)
Corporate Deadbeats: How Companies Get Rich Off of Taxes (Newsweek)
America’s new class system: Column (USA Today)
Inversion Delusion (NY Times)
Being a stock-market bull just got a lot harder (Mark Hulbert)
Sunstein: Americans’ Costly Failure to Refinance (BV)
How Are American Families Doing? A Guided Tour of Our Financial Well-Being (The Upshot)
Ode to a F*cked Generation (Medium)

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Have a Great Day!