Investor Scorecard, A Look Back

Scheduling Note:  I will be taking Friday off to extend the weekend a bit and spend some time with my daughter while she is home. The site will be updated as usual, perhaps a bit late. The Financial Advisor Letter will go out over the weekend sometime.   😎

As I mentioned in Monday’s Notes, one of our members has made a casual notice of something potentially very worthwhile.

One of our members made a casual notice of something I find very interesting:

My interest was piqued when I ran the numbers forward on the 5/7/2013 Investor Scorecard.The combination of RA Analysis with a value of “Outperform” paired with a Composite Score of less than 50 identified most of the highest performing Morningstar Sectors over the next six months. Quite impressive!

Steve has requested, if possible, to run somewhat of an historical analysis. Let’s say one scorecard a month for the year 2012. This project was actually a bit easier than I thought it would be although a bit time consuming. Below is a list of Morningstar sectors, by month and the RA analysis as well as the Investor Scorecard Score. I’ve highlighted where either condition is met (Green Background), that is an RA analysis of Outperform and a Score of less than 50.


I have emailed the spreadsheet containing all the data to Steve (Member who requested it), as of this writing I have not heard back, but I’m sure he’s just on vacation (this is a popular vacation week). I’m very interested in his interpretation since he spotted this

For fun, let’s look at a monthly chart of VTI – Vanguard Total Stock Market and plot
for the year 2012 the number of sectors (of 31) that are rated outperforming at the monthly bar.


An Interesting build prior to the 2013 launch. Can we time the market this way? I really don’t know but it’s interesting isn’t it?

Talking Points and Will the S&P 500 Just Plow Through 2,000?:

A Case for Stocks Now (Fidelity)
Why Burger King Is Really Buying Tim Hortons (It’s Not About the Taxes) (Business Week)
Nearly Every Founding Fathers’ Quote Shared By Congressional Candidates Is Fake (Buzzfeed)
QE Ending Or Just Getting Started? (Short Takes)
8 Qualities That Make Great Bosses Unforgettable (Linkedin)
Failing to Remember (Robert Seawright)
Unpredictable Work Hours Are Stressing Too Many People Out (HBR)
Why Has the Texas Economy Outperformed? A Surprising Answer From Paul Krugman  (Bob McTeer)
3 Lessons From S&P 2000 (Time)
The “Cash on the Sidelines” Argument has Run its Course (GaveCal)
This Is Uber’s Playbook for Sabotaging Lyft (The Verge)
Smart Beta: The Investing Buzzword That Won’t — and Needn’t — Die (Bloomberg)
Curiosity Is as Important as Intelligence (H B R)
Who benefits from a stock-market boom? (Washington Post)
Home prices just hit a 70-month high. Now for the bad news (MarketWatch)
How Home Prices Have Slowed Down, in Five Charts (Real Time Economics)
Gun assault injuries alone cost taxpayers almost half a billion dollars a year (WonkBlog)
The Star That Exploded at the Dawn of Time (Science Magazine)

Will the S&P 500 Just Plow Through 2,000?

Have a Great Day!